Estimated Guns Sold in 2023 and 2024

From January 1 to April 30, 2024, an estimated 5,483,223 guns were sold, averaging about 1.3 million guns per month. During the same period last year, the average was about 1.4 million guns per month.

In 2020, there was a surge in gun purchases due to uncertainty caused by the pandemic, national social and political unrest, and economic instability. The COVID-19 pandemic and widespread racial justice protests across the U.S. intensified concerns about personal safety and security. Additionally, the contentious 2020 presidential election and fears of potential changes to gun control laws further fueled the increase in firearm purchases.

There are some reasons to believe that the 2024 election cycle will also lead to an uptick in gun sales due to continuing gun violence, economic instability, and legislative actions. For instance, President Biden’s plans to limit the usage of guns by increasing background check procedures and banning assault weapons might increase the demand for guns as buyers anticipate such laws if he wins a second term.

>> Related: Gun Laws and Firearm Fatalities

Montana, Alaska, and Wyoming Lead the Nation in Population-Adjusted Gun Sale Rates

Texas, Florida, and California had the highest total number of gun sales in 2024. These states, some of the most populous, accounted for 22 percent of sales in the United States this year.

When adjusting for population, however, Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska have the highest gun sales rates. These states have strong hunting traditions fostered by rural lifestyles and less rigid gun control laws. The pro-gun cultures and the need for self-defense in such remote areas, which abound in predators that could harm livestock, may also contribute to higher gun ownership and sales.

States with the highest population-adjusted gun sale rates in 2023

The southern states of Alabama, Tennessee, and West Virginia also had some of the highest gun sales rates in the country. These states have relatively permissive gun ownership laws, which makes it easier for residents to obtain firearms. For example, none of these states require permits to purchase firearms, and none have a waiting period.

In 2023, the states with the lowest gun sale rates compared to population size were Washington, D.C., New York, New Jersey, and Nebraska. More than likely, the relatively low number of firearms sales in Washington D.C., New York, and New Jersey is due to their strong firearms laws, which include required background checks, red flag laws, and the requirement of handgun purchase permits. The higher population, urbanization, and broad public support for gun regulations in these states also contribute to their lower gun sales.

Interestingly, despite being rural, conservative, and not having a red flag law in place, Nebraska had a low gun sales rate. The midwestern state has earmarked funds for community violence initiatives in addition to requiring background checks and handgun purchase permits.

States With Increased Gun Sale Rates

Between 2022 and 2023, gun sales declined in all states except for four: North Carolina, Illinois, New Hampshire, and Florida. In these states, gun sales increased, potentially due to various factors such as changes in state laws, shifts in public opinion, and crime patterns.

North Carolina

The state's pistol purchase permit law, which ended in March 2023, led to a dramatic spike in registered gun sales between 2022 and 2023. This change in the law meant that buyers were no longer required to get a permit from their sheriff's office to buy a handgun, which simplified and increased sales, evidenced by the spike in background checks.

Illinois

Gun sales increased around five percent in Illinois between 2022 and 2023. This increase occurred despite a tightening in gun laws: Public Act 102-1116, the Protect Illinois Communities Act signed on January 10, 2023, enacted a ban on assault weapons and high-capacity magazines in the state of Illinois.

New Hampshire

Gun sales rose only modestly in New Hampshire (just three percent), which has some of the weakest gun laws in the country and has not passed any notable new gun control measures recently.

Florida

In Florida, the one percent year-over-year increase in gun sales may have been driven by both a shift in the law and public attitudes about security. Florida enacted a permitless carry law in 2023, allowing Florida residents to carry a concealed firearm without a permit. This change in legislation may have prompted a few more people to purchase firearms​.

States With Most Significant Declines In Gun Sales

District of Columbia (-32%)

In the District of Columbia, the decrease in firearm sales over the last year can be explained by the district’s further strengthening of its stringent background checks and firearm registration process. All firearms must be registered with the D.C. Metropolitan Police Department before any transfer occurs. D.C. also imposes stricter restrictions on who can own a gun, removing them from the possession of people who have been indicted for violent crimes or weapon offenses. Thirdly, D.C. has one of the nation's strictest concealed carry permit processes. Finally, the district continues to enforce its regulations on prohibited firearms, including assault weapons and high-capacity magazines.

Delaware (-18%)

Delaware has seen considerable changes regarding firearms over the past year, attributable to legislation, financial constraints, and social perspectives. The passage of acts like Senate Bill 6 banning high-capacity magazines and House Bill 125 forbidding particular semi-automatic weapons has made gun acquisition more inconvenient. The state senate recently approved three additional safety measures, with a pledge to enact Senate Bill 2 necessitating permits for handgun buys in January. Such rules may have discouraged potential purchasers due to increased complications.

New York (-15%)

New York saw a reduction in firearms purchases over the last year, which can be attributed to the implementation and upholding of more stringent gun control measures like the Concealed Carry Improvement Act, which was “enacted to keep guns away from schools, hospitals, parks, public transportation, and other sensitive locations.” Furthermore, the state's thorough firearm and ammunition-related background checks conducted by the New York State Police and the increased use of red-flag laws or Extreme Risk Protection Orders have added to diminishing sales figures.

Public campaigns on the dangers of firearms and the promotion of secure gun ownership have also contributed. Simultaneously, shifts in public perspectives toward gun control have occurred in the state following highly publicized incidents of gun violence and increased advocacy on the issue.

Louisiana (-15%)

Louisiana has seen gun sales drop over the last year, according to available data. Legislative, economic, and social changes have all likely played a role in reducing firearm transactions across the state. President Biden's recent executive action aimed at strengthening background checks has increased scrutiny of all gun sales. At the same time, Louisiana continues to face unemployment issues and financial uncertainty, limiting discretionary spending for many residents. Public opinion has also turned against unfettered access to guns following advocacy campaigns and rising gun violence making headlines.

Conclusion

The analysis of gun sales in the United States reveals significant shifts due to legislative changes, economic conditions, and public sentiment. After peaking during the pandemic in 2020, gun sales have declined nationwide for three years, correlating with reduced safety concerns. Texas, Florida, and California lead in total sales, while Montana, Wyoming, and Alaska have the highest per capita purchases due to a strong gun culture and lenient laws.

In contrast, the District of Columbia, Delaware, New York, and Louisiana had the most significant decreases in sales, influenced by stricter gun control measures. These trends underscore the complex interactions between legislation, the economy, crime rates, and public sentiment in shaping gun sales.

At SafeHome.org, we’re committed to promoting safety and security in homes and communities. Understanding these trends is crucial as we strive to inform policymakers, stakeholders, and the public about the factors influencing gun ownership. By analyzing and disseminating this information, we aim to contribute to informed decision-making that enhances safety and well-being for all.

Methodology

The data elucidating this examination was procured from the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), spanning 2010 until 2024. To estimate arm deals, we applied a formula derived from the Small Arms Survey by Jurgen Brauer, counting each long firearm and handgun verification as 1.1 purchases and each multiple-gun verification as two acquisitions. Private sale verifications were incorporated, while we omitted permit verifications and other checks. Researchers at the New York Times and Buzzfeed News have also used similar calculations in their past reporting. Data from Hawaii was excluded owing to insufficient information.

By breaking down and scrutinizing this data, we aim to furnish a more precise portrayal of arms deal patterns and their more extensive ramifications for American society. Some analyses we will perform include looking at annual trends, variations between states, differences between long guns and handguns, and correlations with other socioeconomic factors. We hope that a deeper evaluation of this information can help policymakers and the public better understand this complex issue.

By analyzing this data, we aim to provide a clearer picture of gun sales trends and their broader implications for American society.

Data Appendix